Thursday, July 19, 2012

The Numbers Behind the Jeremy Lin Contract

There's a story out there that no one is talking about in this NBA offseason: a little-known player named Jeremy Lin (a Taiwanese-American who graduated from Harvard) has been offered a contract by the Houston Rockets. Since Lin is a restricted free agent, his team last year (the New York Knicks) can match the offer and keep Lin.
In either an effort to make it impossible for the Knicks to sign Lin, or to force them in to going way over the luxury tax threshold, the Rockets offered Lin a somewhat-ridiculous 3 year deal for approximately 5/5/15 - a total of approximately 25 million but with a huge number in the third year. Due to the teired luxury tax system, it is much more expensive for the Knicks to sign him than a team with more flexibility like the Rockets.
Since, in reality, the news coverage of this story in this quiet lull between interesting sports (sorry, baseball) has been saturating, I'm sure we have all heard this before - and heard that it could cost the Knicks anywhere from $30 million to $75 million the third year. Obviously, its not Lin that costs that much, its the sum of the contracts.
So I decided to take a look at what every NBA team had in guaranteed salaries for that season.
Guaranteed NBA Salaries 2014-2015
The season in question, 2014-2015, the Knicks would have $75 million guaranteed for Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, and Lin. This is tops in the league, but only by 5-6 million over the Nyets and the Heat. Considering the salary-cap options available to them - the stretch clause, or trading someone (not just Lin), I find it hard to believe they can't afford Lin.
After all, Dolan is not hurting for cash and Lin could easily turn in to a great revenue stream and pay for himself anyway.

No comments:

Post a Comment