To briefly recap the value system, for every pick in the last ten drafts we average out the performance in an eight-year weighted average and determined the expected value from each of the picks. If you haven't read Part I yet, I wrote a pretty detailed explanation of the system.
You can view a gallery of the drafts (from Part I) directly on imgur from here. The overall rankings are based on the total production of all players drafted divided by the total expected value.
2002
Overall: 83.16%
Best Picks: Yao Ming (1), Amare Stoudamire (9), Carlos Boozer (34)
Worst Picks: Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5), Dajuan Wagner (6)
Only 11 players performed over 125% of their expected value. This draft was pretty weak across the board with the top 10, 11-30, and 31-57 slices under-performing.
2003
Overall: 120.21%
Best Picks: LeBron (1), Carmelo Anthony (3), Chris Bosh (4), Dwyane Wade (5)
Worst Picks: Darko Milicic (2), Mike Sweetney (9)
There were lots of standout picks in this draft, but with the four greats I have listed, it doesn't seem fair to list the others. David West at 18 performed at the Expected Value of a #2 pick, Josh Howard (29) at a #3 pick, and Mo Williams (47) close to #4 value.
Interestingly, this draft was not exceptionally deep. The overall 120% value mostly due to the players I've already mentioned. Overall, over a third (23/58) of the picks gave less than 25% of their Expected Value overall, an average number over the last decade.
It should be noted that the Darko pick by the pistons was made exponentially worse by the other members of the top 5. The Pistons had just won the NBA Championship - imagine if they had added a Carmelo or a Wade to that team.
2004
Overall: 100.28%
Best Picks: Dwight Howard (1) Andre Iguodala (9), Josh Smith (17), Kevin Martin (26), Al Jefferson (15)
Worst Picks: Shaun Livingston (4), Rafael Araujo (8), Luke Jackson (10)
This draft is exceptional for having a very shallow talent pool. With the names listed above, there was a lot of talent trafted in the first round. Three players went on to have production consistent with being drafted first overall (Howard, Iguodala, and Josh Smith), and four more produced number two overall values - Okafor (2), Ben Gordon (3), Luol Deng (7), and Al Jefferson (15). Thats seven players that could have been drafted #1 or #2 and been a worthy selection. But unlike most drafts, there were almost no players drafted in the second round that went on to have significant careers - Trevor Ariza (43) and Chris Duhon (38) were the only two exceptions.
2005
Overall: 114.04%
Best Picks: Chris Paul (4), Danny Granger (17), David Lee (30), Monta Ellis (40)
Worst Picks: Yaroslav Korolev (12), Julius Hodge (20)
The high overall rating of this draft is amazing considering the careers of the first and second picks (Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams) - both have under-performed their draft position. The draft is bolstered by Deron Williams (3) and Chris Paul (4), and an exceptionally solid 17-40, with players like Monta Ellis and Louis Williams getting drafted in the second round.
2006
Overall: 77.91%
Best Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Rajon Rondo (21)
Worst Pick: Adam Morrison (3)
This draft was so weak it seems hard to call many of the picks bad - there just wasn't that much talent available. Only 4 players have given the Expected Value of a #4 pick, compared to a similarly weak 2002 draft when 7 players performed at that level. Only 7 players have given the Expected Value of a top 10 player.
2007
Overall: 95.75%
Best Picks: Kevin Durant (2), Marc Gasol (48)
Worst Pick: Greg Oden (1)
The only player to really stand out in this draft is Durant, who was half of the obvious #1/#2 pairing with Oden. Gasol as a late round pick was a great pick since he wasn't going to play the next year, which obviously paid off and he has given the third highest value of his draft class so far, despite missing a year.
2008
Overall: 117.06%
Best Picks: Westbrook (4), Love (5), Brook Lopez (10)
Worst Picks: Joe Alexander (8), Alexis Ajinca (20)
An exceptionally deep draft, with only the two "worst" picks not producing well among the first 29 picks. A very high 114% overall performance, without a group like the 2003 draft (LeBron/Bosh/Wade/Carmelo) makes this draft unique among the last ten. An amazing 34 players drafted performed at least at 75% of their Expected Value, the most in the ten years of this survey.
2009
Overall: 108.32%
Best Picks: Brandon Jennings (10), Jrue Holiday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Darren Collison (21), Marcus Thornton (43)
Worst Pick: Hasheem Thabeet (2)
With only three seasons to look at, many of these picks are still works-in-progress. Ricky Rubio has given almost nothing back to the Timberwolves, but the glimpse we saw of him last year shows he could still be a good investment of a #5 pick. This draft, much like 2008, appears to be very deep with 32 players overall performed at 75% or better of their Expected Value, the second-most in the last ten drafts. However, no player has given, so far, performance equal to that of a #1 pick. Blake Griffin is closest, having been drafted in the spot, and he missed a season due to injury - so all expectations are that he will exceed his Expected Value soon.
2010
Overall: 76.73%
Best Picks: Greg Monroe (7), Landry Fields (39)
Worst Picks: Evan Turner (2), Cole Aldrich (11)
These players have only had two seasons to perform, so its not very fair to be evaluating the draft already. But so far, it is remarkable that Landry Fields has been able to contribute the Expected Value of a #4 pick from the 39th pick. Greg Monroe has put up exceptional value, producing more than John Wall - and both of them over the EV of a number one overall.
2011
Overall: 96.39%
Best Picks: Kyrie Irving (1), Isaiah Thomas (60)
Worst Picks: N/A
While this is way too early to evaluate the draft using the metrics that I have designed, it should be noted that what Thomas did, as the 60th pick in the draft, is pretty remarkable - having the second-most productive rookie season of the draft class.
Here is a summary of the overall results:
This was Part II of the StatDance.com NBA draft analysis.
Part I: Determining the expected value of a draft pick
Part III: Team-by-team NBA draft performance - Coming Soon
Part IV: We evaluate every NBA GM since 2002 - Coming Soon
Part V: Who did they miss? Looking at the undrafted free agents in the NBA - Coming Soon
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